Analysis and Prediction of the Current Registered Urban Unemployment Rate in China

摘要

The aim of this paper is to explore the problem of the current registered urban unemployment rate in China, based on the methods of correlation analysis and principal component analysis. After analysing a number of influence factors of the unemployment rate, we establish a multiple regression model for the unemployment rate. Statistical test shows that the regression model is fitting significantly. Furthermore, we conduct a structural analysis of unemployment using the model established above, and forecast future unemployment rate in short term. Based on the results of analysis and prediction, we recommend several countermeasures and suggestions to the problem of unemployment rate.