Karst spring discharge modelling based on grey system theory:A case study at Shentou, northern China

摘要

As the most important water supply source for Shuozhou City of northern China, the Shentou springs have an average annual discharge of 6.86 nrVs. However, the discharge of the springs has been reducing since the early 1960s. Grey system theory is applied to simulate and predict the change in discharge of the Shentou springs with time. The change in the discharge of the Shentou springs can be divided into two phases: before and after 1985. The GM (1,1) model is used to fit the discharge change process before 1985, and grey prediction-amending model to simulate the process after 1985 and to predict the trend of the change. The prediction of discharge change between 2000 and 2004 shows that the discharge would follow the trend of increasing in the future should the rainfalls at Shentou continue to be comparatively high, as in the middle of the 1990s, and groundwater in Shuozhou is not excessively exploited.