System Dynamics Based Water Resources Planning: a Case Study of South Jiangsu Province

摘要

A system dynamic (SD) model focusing on decision-making support for urban water resources planning was developed for the integrated and scientific management of the water resources of urban areas in this paper. The Jurong SD contains information feedback that governs interactions in the system and component-level knowledge is encompassed into system behavior simulation at an integrated level. Interactions among 105 components for 45 years are explored and six planning alternatives are chosen, one of which is based on the conventional mode assuming that the existing pattern of human activities will be prevailed, while the others are alternative planning designs based on the interaction of local authorities and planning researchers. The preferred scenario is therefore obtained according to different scenarios through comparing the simulation results for evaluation of different decisions. The results show that SD model can be effectively used to assist urban water resources planning strategy-makings.