CALCULATING EXACT TOP EVENT PROBABILITY OF A FAULT TREE

摘要

An efficient calculation method to obtain an exact top event probability of a fault tree is proposed when the minimal cut sets of the tree model are given. The method is based on the Inclusion-Exclusion method. Generally, the Inclusion-Exclusion method tends to get into computational difficulties for a large scale fault tree. We reduce the computation time by enumerating only non-canceling terms. This method enables us to calculate the top event probability of a large scale fault tree containing many repeated events.