RUSSIAN REGULATORY DIFFUSION MODELS: STATUS, RESULTS OF VALIDATION AND INTERNATIONAL INTERCOMPARISONS

摘要

From the user's point of view, a dispersion model can be considered as a black box which is characterized by its input and output. Every national regulatory dispersion is tuned to the existing structure of the input information which could be obtained from the national meteorological network. At the moment the Russian National Weather Service cannot provide users with the input information required for running the western Gaussian-type models. That is why at present there are only rather limited opportunities for application of Gaussian dispersion models in Russia. As for the MGO models, their development always was oriented toward the use of the input data available in Russia. OND-86 and its predecessors were in use in Russia for more than thirty years and performed reasonably well. OND-86, however, provides only short-term worst-case concentration fields and cannot be used for estimation of long-term (e.g., annual) concentrations. This drawback is now eliminated with the newly developed MGOLT model which is intended, in particular, for applications in risk assessment.