Quantifying Correlations between International Relations and Nuclear Proliferation Status1

摘要

The spread of nuclear weapons remains a grave concern. Unfortunately, the influence of political and economic relations on nuclear proliferation is not well understood, and is further complicated by complex interplay between internal and external factors. Here, we present a new method for quantifying correlations between international relations and proliferation. This work builds on quantitative political science investigations of the relationships between proliferation and alliances, macroeconomic ties, conflicts, and nuclear cooperation agreements (NCAs). Network science provides a framework for analysis of these complex systems. A multilayer network model was constructed in which the countnes of the world are represented as nodes linked by international relations. The alliances, macroeconomic ties, conflicts, and NCAs between nations were quantified using node-based metrics and plotted against the proliferation stage of a nation as determined by Singh and Way.3 The correlation between these variables and the Singh and Way proliferation stage is quantified using a linear correlation coefficient as a function of year. The distribution of these correlation coefficients as a function of year are presented here, and analyzed to identify generalized trends in the relationship between proliferation and the various forms of international associations.