A Simulation Based Approach for treatment and limitation of clinical risks: the arthroplasty hip surgery

摘要

This paper proposes a simulation method for the prediction of the clinical risk. In particular the study is based on a double simulative approach and useful in case of existence of time-series. The first one is a discrete event simulation (D.E.S. model), which allows to describe and understand how a variable of a medical process can be modified, implementing procedural (or physical) changes. The second part of the simulative approach, a Monte Carlo simulation, is implemented using the available time-series and the results which derives from the D.E.S. model, in order to predict the trend of key performance indicators for the clinical risk. The proposed method is applied to an implementation of a new procedure for the infection control of hip surgery.