Strategic Model for Oil Price and Risk Management

摘要

The price of oil is absolutely fluctuated since its supply and demand are abruptly uncertain.If the oil price continues to rise to the threshold,from the experience of the oil crises happened in the past,the world will certainly face an economic crisis in the near future.With the rapid development of global economy,China's dependence on oil market will be gotten deeper.In addition,since one of the most important factors affecting China's economic development is oil price,estimation and risk management of the oil price has theoretical and practical significance.Because of its significance,we first find the factors affecting oil price.Then,we create a model to estimate the oil price and then adopt suitable strategies of risk management according to our estimated price to get the reasonable price with least risk.