Error Propagation in Wildfire Behaviour Modelling

摘要

Rothermel's model is the most widely used fire behaviour model in wild fire research and management. It is a complex model that considers 17 input variables describing fuel type, fuel moisture, terrain and wind. Uncertainties in the input variables can have a substantial impact on the results error and have to be considered, especially when the results are used in spatial decision making. In this paper it is shown that the analysis of error propagation can be carried out with the method of Taylor series. It is a powerful tool for analysing the contributions of the input variables uncertainties.