Validation of Energy and Uncertainty Predictions by Comparison to Actual Production

摘要

Over the past 20 years, Garrad Hassan has produced predictions for over 30,000 MW of wind farms, many of which are now operating. The basis of the validation presented in this paper is a high level comparison of the actual metered production to the original pre-construction prediction for over 100 operational wind farms. The wind farms have been operational for between 1 and 11 years and are located across the globe. The investigation presented has been designed to compliment the range of more detailed validations that GH has conducted over the years on individual aspects of its methodologies and models. The distribution of annual production figures, relative to the GH central estimate will be presented. The overall distribution of GH predicted annual energy production, taking into account both climate variability and methodology uncertainties, will be shown to assess the level of agreement between the predicted and actual distribution.