ESTIMATING ICEBERG-WAVE COMPANION LOADS USING PROBABILISTIC METHODS

摘要

Many challenges arise when designing offshore structures for iceberg loads in arctic and subarctic regions. To help the designer, the ISO 19906:2010 standard provides guidance for the calculation of design ice loads using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches. In determining design loads for different environmental factors, both principal and companion actions must be taken into account; an example is iceberg actions and companion wave actions. ISO 19906 allows the designer to calculate the companion wave action as a specified fraction (combination factor) of the extreme level (EL) design wave load. Alternatively, the designer can calculate appropriate companion wave loads explicitly. A methodology has been developed at C-CORE in which representative iceberg actions are determined using a software package, the Iceberg Load Software (ILS). This is a probabilistic tool which uses Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a distribution of global impact forces based on the expected range of iceberg and environmental conditions that a structure would likely encounter. The software provides a reasonably accurate representation of the iceberg loading situation, following the provisions of ISO 19906:2010, without introducing unnecessary conservatism in the design load. In the software, the influence of waves on the iceberg actions are considered, but companion wave loads must be calculated and added externally to the software, The software accounts for the probability of different sea state conditions and the influence of the sea state on the probability and severity of iceberg impact, given the correlations between the sea state, iceberg management effectiveness and iceberg drift and wave-induced velocity. The additional hydrodynamic pressure due to the wave during the period of the impact; is not considered. This wave loading will be complicated by the influence that the presence the iceberg and structure have on the local sea state. In this paper, brief descriptions are provided of background studies on companion wave loading and the application of companion load factors in ISO 19906. The companion load factors allow the designer to apply the design wave load, which is calculated for situations with no iceberg present, to the case of iceberg impacts. In this study, a methodology is presented for determining companion wave loads based on the distribution of sea states expected during an iceberg impact. These sea states are significantly less severe than that associated with the design wave load as iceberg impacts are rare events. The companion wave loads are determined without accounting for the influence of the iceberg; this is thought to be quite conservative. An example application of the methodology is presented for a hypothetical platform located on the Grand Banks, off the east coast of Newfoundland. Iceberg actions, wave actions and combined iceberg-wave actions are estimated using the described methodology. Comparisons are provided for the resulting companion loads and those based on ISO 19906:2010 companion load factors applied to the extreme level wave load.