An Agent-Based model of civil violence with imprisonment delay and legitimacy feedback

摘要

Epstein's Agent-Based model of civil violence has been very successful due to its simplicity and explanatory power, but does not represent important phenomena, such as processes operating at multiple scales and feedback mechanisms. In this work, we present an extension of Epstein's model that includes the effects of imprisonment delay, media coverage and feedback of rebellion bursts of the government's legitimacy. These innovations are relevant for a more realistic modeling of the complex and path-dependent effect of protests and violent confrontations on the evolution of the social context. The resulting simulations showed punctuated equilibrium as in Epstein's model, but the violence bursts lasted longer and displayed more complicated structure and interdependence on previous events. The rebellion peaks lead to drops and lowering of the time-averaged value of the government's legitimacy.