THE RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM BASED ON DYNAMIC BAYESIAN NETWORK

摘要

As distribution system reliability analysis methods widely used today can't describe the status of time-related dynamic events,this paper presents a reliability analysis method of distribution system based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks.Dynamic Bayesian network is a time extension of the static Bayesian network,which consists of the initial network and transfer network.Based on Dynamic Bayesian networks,the actual value of the component failure rates and repair rates can be accurately reflected; and failure frequency and duration of distribution system can be calculated.In this paper,firstly,the theoretical basis of the Dynamic Bayesian Network is introduced,then the Dynamic Bayesian Network model which can analyze the reliability of distribution system is established,and finally the validity of the proposed method is verified by an example.