Diplomatic, Information, Military and Economic power (DIME): An effects modeling system

摘要

This paper describes an analysis framework for estimating the effects of Diplomatic, Informational, Military, and Economic (DIME) activities in the context of a theater of operations. We evaluate and recommend a set of candidate models of the flow and evolution of population beliefs and intentions as the starting point for developing a DIME Effects Modeling System (DEMS) for tactical commanders. We identified the needs as: (1) understanding and representing the underlying causality within the population, (2) formulating models that are both sensitive and computable, and (3) validating the predictions of population beliefs, intentions, and behaviors by model. The following objectives were established as a path to closing the identified gaps.