Spatial and economic impacts analysis of an emergency event

摘要

We simulated transmission path of an emergency event's (taking an H1N1 epidemic as an example) impact on China's economic system within the framework of a Social Accounting Matrix(SAM), opening ‘Black Box’ of the impact of public health incidents on economic system. Based on SAM, structural path analysis (SPA) is an appropriate method to simulate how demand changes transmit in the economic system. And the starting point of an H1N1 epidemic impacting the economic system just lies on demands of residents (for example, increase of medical expenditure; decrease of inbound, outbound tourism; decrease of leisure activity). We constructed a SAM which includes 49 endogenous accounts, 8 exogenous accounts to reflect Chinese economic characteristics. On the basis of multiplier decomposition and SPA, we analyzed which accounts were most influenced by the rise of demands for medical industry influenced directly by H1N1 and the reduction of demands for transportation, post, commerce, restaurant, and entertainment industry closely related to the ‘face to face’ communication. The results show that the increase of medical expenditure triggered the rise of demands for medical staff and pharmaceutical manufacturing in chemical industry; the reduction of the demands for industries closely related to ‘face to face’ communication mainly had an impact on employment, residents' incomes, profit of enterprise and so on. From the simulation results of the SPA, the transmission path of restaurant industry's demand for agricultural labor, the post's demand for production labor and the entertainment's demand for proficient labor only concentrate on dozens of paths in hundreds of thousands of transmission paths. The simulation methods help mining spatial and temporal character of economic data.