Risk, characterized by uncertainty of events and their consequences, is an important factor in project management. Technical risk, cost risk, and schedule risk are estimated in various ways, often related to the actual project schedule developed without an explicit consideration of risk. This paper examines the concept of risk used in developing a project schedule and how such measures may then be used to manage risk once a schedule has been developed. Expected duration has most frequently been used to develop a schedule with uncertain activity durations. Other measures such as expected utility, semi-variance, probability of extreme durations, and coditional expectations may be appropriate alternative measures. These concepts are compared and evaluated for their suitability in developing schedules and for managing risk in implementation.
展开▼
