Modelling the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data from January 20 to February 20, 2020

摘要

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on the ship with a stochastic model and estimate the basic reproduction number at 2.2 (95%CI: 2.1−2.4). Through estimating the dispersion parameter which quantifies the superspreading events, we find that stochastic bursts were unlikely to occur if the reproduction number is less than 1. The epidemic doubling time is at 4.6 days (95%CI: 3.0−9.3), thus timely action were crucial. The lesson learn on the ship is generally applicable in other settings### Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.### Funding StatementDH was supported by General Research Fund (Grant Number 15205119) of the Research Grants Council (RGC) of Hong Kong, China. WW was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Number 61672013) and Huaian Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention (Grant Number HAP201704), Huaian, Jiangsu, China. ### Author DeclarationsAll relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.YesAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesWe used publicly available data only.